The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America’s Economic Future
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Product Description
One of Library Journal’s Best Business Books of 2004, A Forbes.com Top Ten Business Book for 2004, One of Barron’s 25 Best Books of 2004, Winner in the category of Economics in the 2004 Professional/Scholarly Publishing Annual Awards Competition open by the Association of American Publishers, Inc. and CHOICE Outstanding Literary Title for 2004
This paperback edition of The Coming Generational Storm has been revised and updated and includes a new foreword by the authors.
In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into ancient age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers. How will Social Security and Medicare function with fewer effective taxpayers to support these programs? According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, if our government continues on the course it has set, we’ll see skyrocketing tax excise, drastically lower retirement and health benefits, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating dollar, unemployment, and political instability. The government has lost its compass, say Kotlikoff and Burns, and the Bush administration’s spending and tax policies have charted a course straight into the coming generational storm.
Kotlikoff and Burns take us on a guided tour of our generational imbalance: There’s the “fiscal child abuse” that will double the taxes paid by the next generation. There’s also the “deficit delusion” of the under-reported national debt. And none of this, they say, will be solved by any of the popularly touted remedies: cutting taxes, technological progress, immigration, foreign investment, or the elimination of wasteful government spending. Kotlikoff and Burns propose bold new policies, including meaningful reforms of Social Security and Medicare, that are simple, straightforward, and geared to attract support from both political parties.
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What an astounding example of literary rubbish to complement the current oh-my-god-ss-is-going-to-run-out cries from chicken small, AKA, the warrior! no the peace! no, the warrior! pRe$ident and his monied minion$ in Congre$$. The writers of this crap perform fantastic feats of mental gynastics to place blame entirely at the feet of entitlement programs. What an astonishing coincidence we have here…the very *same* programs that have helped keep the heads above water of persons of us who *aren’t* trust fund babies are the very same programs the trust fund baby/leaders now want to dismantle. What they haven’t gone to fantastic lengths to clarify but is to point out that the entire American economy is predicated on consumer debt and we are Ownd by Chinese and Japanese banks who keep subsizing our debt so we can continue to afford their cheap crap. Don’t waste your time reading this book. All you have to do to spare your eyes is switch on the TV and tune into Fox News, the official Pravda channel of the United States of, by and for the corporate fascists of America.
Reader’s Rating: 1 / 5
Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Scott Burns do an brilliant job of outlining the demographic deluge that is threatening America. They delineate the number of future retirees compared to the number of future workers, paying into the Social Security System. And, they propose some thoughtful solutions.
But, they fall fleeting in explaining the main reason why this nation (and many economically advanced nations)faces such a dire future. They do not explore the impact from legalized abortion. Certainly, we have too few young workers. That’s because millions of them have been aborted in the past thirty years. The crisis has been predictable for decades.
Reader’s Rating: 5 / 5
This book completely ignores the ongoing medical revolution
Jeffrey Sachs writes:
“No economist has thought more clearly or spoken more resolutely about our long-term fiscal challenges than Larry Kotlikoff.”
and the book description starts:
“In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into ancient age, walkers will outnumber strollers;”
Does this discription make any sense at all TWENTY FIVE years into the future?
The book is worthless in forecasting the future but reasonably excellent if you snub our medical revolution.
Reader’s Rating: 1 / 5
There is a huge market for books and articles that make the case for cutting back Social Security and Medicare. Major media outlets and publishers are nervous to give such pieces fantastic prominence. Sorry to say, they care very small about the truth.
There are some very simple facts that readers of this book would probably never admit.
1) The vast majority of the projected increases in government entitlement spending over the next 40 years are attributable to rising per person health care costs, not the aging of the population.
2) If the U.S. proves unable to contain the costs in its health care system, the economic impact will be devastating, even if we eliminated Medicare and Medicaid tomorrow.
3)If the U.S. cannot fix its health care system, then it would be simple to curtail spending on Medicare and Medicaid by simply contracting out for these services to the countries that have managed to control costs and still delight in longer life expectancies than the United States (see “Medicare Choice Plus: The Answer to the Long-Term Deficit Problem” on the website of the Center for Economic and Policy Research).
4) If the U.S. does control its health care costs, then the increase in government spending on entitlements for the elderly over the next 40 years will be smaller (measured as a share of GDP) than it was over the last 40 years.
5) In forty years, our children will on average delight in a level of after-tax hourly compensation that is more than twice as high as we receive today. This is not attributable to their brilliance and hard work, but rather will be the result of the public and private capital stock that we have passed down to them, as well as the state of technical knowledge..
All of these are simple facts that every economist recognizes. It is remarkable that a book could be published on generation inequality and never take up these issues. It is even more remarkable that anyone takes such a book seriously.
Reader’s Rating: 1 / 5
The book has much information on an vital theme, but its attempts to be cool and amusing are just distracting rubbish. Two examples out of many — in discussing Bill Clinton’s economic record, off-hand references are made to Monica Lewinsky and Marc Rich. Bob Dole is first introduced as a Viagra salesman. What is this stuff doing in a book on public policy?
The authors and the publisher should be ashamed of inserting such nonsense in an otherwise excellent book. I suggest skipping much of the prose and perusing the tables, or reading Kotlikoff’s more scholarly work.
Reader’s Rating: 2 / 5